The Misadventures of Quinxy von Besiex truths, lies, and everything in between

9Mar/120

If Sandra Fluke is a Slut then Rush Limbaugh is a Dope Fiend

Immensely popular conservative radio talk show host recently Rush Limbaugh used the terms "slut" and "prostitute" to refer to a student advocate for mandated funding of female contraception.  Sandra Fluke's comments before a congress panel can probably be summed as fellow students didn't have a lot of money and providing contraception as part of health care would encourage contraception use, which benefits the whole of society (fewer children born to unfit parents, more people completing college, fewer abortions, etc.).  Rush Limbaugh felt that paying for contraception was equivalent to subsidizing the sexual behavior of these women, and opined that a) they must be having a lot of sex if they need help paying for it, b) accepting money for sex makes them prostitutes, and c) if we are all paying for it then we should all be able to watch, and they should make their escapades available online.

Aside from the obvious misogyny I can't help but observe that health care involves subsidizing prevention and treatment for lots of things upon which we all may not agree, and the notion that sexual activities should be singled out as worthy of debate is wildly hypocritical.  Rush Limbaugh has engaged in a lot of activities which I do not wish to subsidize.  Rush Limbaugh drinks, he smokes, he has abused drugs, he has engaged in sex with multiple women, and he probably eats more and does less exercise than would be ideal.  He no doubt has health insurance and has relied upon it in part for the treatment of many conditions stemming from his activities and lack thereof.  So like it or not money other healthy and right-acting people put into their health care plans has been diverted and will continue to be diverted to pay for the consequences of Rush Limbaugh's bodily abuses.  That is the very nature of insurance, take from the well to give to the sick, regardless of a cruelly detailed exploration of fault.  If Rush Limbaugh were not a talk show host but in the employ of a religious group or of the federal government these health care expenses stemming from questionable activity would be entirely covered.  So why does he (and why do conservatives in general) feel the prevention and treatment of the consequences of drinking, smoking, and drug abuse are ok to subsidize but the prevention of the consequences of sex is not?  It is because he is a hypocrite, pure and simple.  And his abusive descriptions of Sandra Fluke show him to be a very nasty human being, which seems a sad turn.

In the early nineties while in college I often listened to Rush.  I rarely agreed with his politics and was in no way a "ditto head", but I often respected his ability to enunciate his difference of opinion.  Having caught moments of his shows a few times in recent years, I have been surprised to see the direction his discourse has taken.  He was always a bit of a bully but exercised some polite restraint.  Now a seeming mirror of the nasty turn in our nation's political discourse he often seems just plain nasty.   I hope our nation (Rush very much included) finds its way back.

^ Quinxy

Copyright protected by Digiprove © 2012 Quinxy von Besiex
9Dec/112

Secure Anonymity with JonDo Live and VMware (or VMware Player)

If you're like me you're a decent law-abiding citizen who feels that privacy is a fundamental right, not merely something we enjoyed by default because technology had not yet found a way to eliminate it.  Fortuntely, technology brings us both problems and solutions.  One such solution is JonDo, a popular and somewhat proven anonymous proxy service.  This article will show you how to create a secure, anonymous browsing platform to ensure your right to free thought and inquiry preserved.

Create the Virtual Machine

First we need to take the ISO of the JonDo Live CD and turn it into a virtual machine.  I'll walk you through those steps.  It's important to note that we are not creating a persistent install here, that's beyond the scope of this article and with JonDo still being beta I'm not sure I'd recommend it.  The install we are building will let you make changes to the file system but those changes would be lost when the virtual machine is rebooted.  We're going to cheat a little and use VMware's snapshot feature to lock in any file system changes we want, and use VMware's host-guest shared folders to let us make some file system changes effectively persistent.  But all that is to come after we do the basics!

  1. Download the latest JonDo Live CD
  2. Verify the hash of the file you downloaded with the MD5 hash listed on the download page.  I recommend Hash Tab for Windows or Mac users.
  3. Create a new virtual machine in VMware.
    1. Choose Typical
    2. Set the "Installer disc image file (iso)" as the JonDo Live ISO file you downloaded. Click Next.
    3. Choose Linux as the guest operating system and Debian 5 as the version.  Click Next.
    4. Choose the name of your virtual machine (e.g., "JonDo Live")
    5. Choose the location where you want the files to be.  Click Next.
    6. Choose a small maximum disk size, I choose 1 GB.  With my current setup I don't even use it.  Click Next.
    7. Click "Customize Hardware".
      • I increased the memory to 1 GB
      • I added a second CD ROM drive, defined as an ISO pointing to the VMware Tools (e.g., C:\Program Files (x86)\VMware\VMware Workstation\linux.iso
      • I removed the floppy drive
      • I set the Network Adapter as Bridged with replicate physical network connection state.
    8. After leaving the customize hardware screen, uncheck the power on after finishing option.
    9. (Optional) I now "Edit Virtual Machine Settings" and on the Options tab I go to "Shared Folders" and create a share which is "Always enabled"; I called my share "shared".  Reminder, this Live CD VM is not a persistent install, so this is where you can keep files/settings/etc. you don't want to risk losing.
  4. Power on this Virtual Machine

Begin Using JonDo

Your JonDo Live VMware virtual machine is now ready to use!

If you've never used JonDo before the most basic thing you need to know is that you need to start up the JonDo proxy before you can start your web browsing.  To do that just click on the "JonDo" icon.  This will connect you to the JonDo servers.  If you don't have a premium account you'll be given free access, but be warned the free service is extremely slow, and anonymity protection is slightly reduced because your data travels through only two mix servers instead of three.  I strongly recommend you upgrade to premium, because otherwise you will become so frustrated waiting for pages to load that you will abandon anonymous browsing.  Once JonDo has successfully connected you can start Firefox.  The version of Firefox included here is configured with plugins that enhance your privacy by controlling the use of things like JavaScript, Java, Flash, Ads, and Cookies.  Many sites will not work without allowing features such as cookies and JavaScript for those sites, so be warned you may need to adjust these settings as you browse and discover things aren't working.  It is important to allow as little as possible!

Before you go and do a lot of anonymous browsing you really should install the VMware Tools, it will greatly enhance your overall experience of this virtual JonDo machine.

Install VMware Tools (optional)

You are perfectly free at this point to use your JonDo Live virtual machine, but the beauty of VMware is its ability to allow you to flit between host and guest operating systems, effortlessly moving your mouse, sharing your clipboard, exchanging files, and resizing the display.

These steps are a little annoying but a few hours of my working through the issues will hopefully make it easy enough for you.  The reason we can't just directly install the VMware Tools is because it has dependencies which are not fulfilled by the JonDo Live image as delivered.

  1. Go to a terminal window (click the terminal icon on the bottom task bar).
  2. Type "sudo bash" to get a root shell.
  3. Type "apt-get install make"
  4. Type "apt-get install gcc-4.1"
  5. Type "apt-get install linux-headers-2.6.32-5-486" (if you read this in the distant future you can get the version number here from the command "uname -a")
  6. Type "apt-get install psmisc"
  7. On the Desktop right click the "VMware Tools" CD icon and select "Mount".  Its contents will now be located as "/media/VMware Tools"
  8. Type "cp /media/VMware Tools/VMwareTools-8.4.8-491717.tar.gz /tmp" to copy the tools archive to the /tmp directory (modify the file name as needed to accommodate future versions)
  9. Type "cd /tmp"
  10. Type "gunzip VMwareTools-8.4.8-491717.tar.gz"
  11. Type "tar xvf VMwareTools-8.4.8-491717.tar"
  12. Type "cd VMwareTools-8.4.8-491717"
  13. Type "./vmware-install.pl" to begin the installer
  14. Choose the defaults for everything they ask (just hit enter/return each time)
  15. When it is finished type "/usr/bin/vmware-user" to start up the VMware Tools

Congratulations!  You now have the VMware Tools installed.

Your shared folder is available inside the JonDo VM at "/mnt/hgfs/shared".

Making your Environment Persistent (Optional)

After you've gotten everything configured, including importing your existing JonDo account info or creating your premium account, you want to save the configuration work you've done so you won't lose it if the virtual machine reboots.  All you need to do is use the "VM" menu, click the "Snapshot" menu item, then choose "Take Snapshot".  As you likely know, this allows you to return to this exact state of the machine at any future time, complete with the file system, memory, display, etc. exactly as it was at this moment.  Instead of booting or rebooting your JonDo VM you can just revert to this snapshot.  Any files you wish to be persistent and not see reverted or erased you should put in the shared folder you could have optionally created.  For example, I keep things like downloaded files, bookmarks, my JonDo exported credentials, etc. in this shared location (e.g., /mnt/hgfs/shared).

Securing your Data Locally (Optional)

To further ensure your privacy you can (and probably should) make sure your virtual machine files (the files VMware uses to store your VM data) are encrypted, either the files themselves (using Windows built-in encryption option) or, better still, by placing the entire directory inside an encrypted virtual drive, with such products as the free TrueCrypt. Be aware, however, that when you use your virtual machine its RAM will be held in your real, physical RAM and as such it can and will be stored in the host's Windows pagefile.sys, where it could potentially be recovered much later, having been written to disk.  The solution in this case is to encrypt your entire system disk with TrueCrypt, such that the swap file is also encrypted or to use an encryption product like Jetico's container encryption which includes swap file encryption as an option.

Conclusion

It is sad that it's come to this, that we honorable, law-abiding citizens must defend ourselves against the unreasonable invasion of our thoughts and study of our activities, but wishing it was not so accomplishes little.  Hopefully this little guide will have helped you take back some of your privacy.

^ Quinxy

Copyright protected by Digiprove © 2011-2012 Quinxy von Besiex
24Aug/110

Big Government, Little Government, Taxes, and Death

I was listening to a conservative political Christian radio show yesterday and the segment was about taxes and the size of government. The host pointed out that in Jesus' time the tax rate was 1% of income (raised temporarily to 3% during war), and how everyone from that era would revolt if they were transported to modern times with our 20-40% effective income tax rates. And the host also pointed out that the American Revolution was fought over a tea tax of about 2-3%, and how surely if the founding fathers were here today they'd be leading a new revolt. It must be "fun" to be a rabble rouser, to have a national audience of like-minded people who are happy to nod along as you erect straw man arguments which you then knock down with self-evident, self-congratulatory arguments. What I really wanted was for someone to call in and make the far more reasonable, truthful argument that tax rate alone is a useless measure of societal success or failure, happiness or misery, good politics or bad. The conservative movement's universal position is that low taxes are good, high taxes are bad, without seeming willing to engage in much discussion about the cummulative or general benefit of all the gradually tacked on social programs which only taxes can effectively fund. The real measure of our success is measured by the overall as well as individual condition of taxable citizens, not merely at what rate their money was being taken from their paychecks.

Taking apart this host's specific references to the past is easy. What were the lives like for the average and individual people in Nazareth or Capernaum around 1 A.D.? They may have been able to keep 99% of their income, but what was the revenue-influenced portion of their life like? Did the average citizen then have a comfortable life: was he only required to work reasonable hours, with reasonable working conditions, with reasonable lifespan, with reasonable lives for the children, etc. My best guess would be absolutely not. I would bet the vast majority of people back then worked long hours, worked jobs which involved considerable risk, had little but survival to show for their life of work, and died early, often after seeing their own children die early. Those citizens being able to retain 99% of their income didn't mean they were able to enjoy that 99%; all of it went to what was often subsistance living.

Our improved lives today are not the result of technological improvement so much as they are the result of the ordered world we've built, the infrastructure our society has maintained through the pooled resources of its citizens organized and implemented by our governments. Strip away our many public programs such as a universally accessible education system, cihldhood vaccinations, emergency medical services, police, fire, social security, medicare, unemployment insurance, worker safety laws, etc. and even with our heritage of modern technology we'd be left in miserable shape, arguably no better off than people 2,000 years ago. And while the comparison between life in 1776 and today wouldn't be as stark, I find it hard to imagine the founding fathers would not have accepted the bulk of the compromise we've had to make with the size of government in order to achieve the more comfortable America in which we live: without their reliance on slavery, on child labor exploitation, on the later exploitation of effectively endentured workers (e.g., Coolies), without the average citizen working until he died, etc.

There is ample room to debate the efficiencies of government, the merits of various programs funded by taxes, the injustice and economic impact of various methods of calculating corporate and individual tax, the possibility of privatizing all that can reasonably be privatized, but to make statements that suggest our system is currently completely broke, that we can or would want to return to a world in which government needed only 1% to assist in improving our world, is brutally helpful.

Copyright protected by Digiprove © 2011-2012 Quinxy von Besiex
16Jul/114

Criminals Invoking the Evil Parallel Universe Defense

A thought occurred to me today, at the intersection of my thoughts about the justice system and the parallel universe theory.

We accept certain "excuses" for crimes.  The situations are relatively rare, but they exist.  If you are in an area devastated by a hurricane, with normal food sources cut off, you are effectively allowed to steal food from an abandoned store.  If someone has carjacked your car with you in it and is demanding that you drive at 100 mph you are not criminally responsible for your speeding.  If your life is in danger you may kill in defense of your life.  If you are clinically insane or seriously mentally retarded you will not be held criminally responsible for your actions, whatever they may be.  The point is not so much the specific excuses that are acceptable as the concept that the legal system does not hold people criminally responsible for crimes they did not have the capacity to avoid committing, whatever they may be.

And now we come to the theory of parallel universes.  For those that don't know, a beautiful conceptual way out of quite a few sticky quantum mechanical problems is to imagine that for every situation where multiple events could happen, we avoid the question of why did this or that happen by saying that there exists a parallel universe in which every possible outcome exists.  To bring it to a macroscopic level, imagine you flip a coin.  It lands tails side up.  There exists an inaccessible parallel universe exactly like the one in which you got tails, with the slight change that in that one an identical you got heads.  And in fact there are an infinite number of variations on the theme, tracing out every possible combination of ways your brain could tell your thumb to move, the weather systems could cause the air to gust, etc.  If we imagine that scientists might be correct in this theory then on a macroscopic level there must exist parallel universes in which otherwise "good" people do "evil".  You may be a kind person in this universe but in another you are a homicidal murderer.  This must be, if parallel universes exist.  And so, too, the evil people in this universe manifest themselves in saintly ways in parallel universes unknown to us.  So the quantum philosophical question then becomes, how responsible can any individual be for any actions, when there exists a version of themselves in another universe doing something completely different?

Why couldn't the homicidal murderer invoke the Evil Parallel Universe Defense at his trial, saying in essence, "I am not responsible.  The laws of physics dictate that there must exist some universes in which I am evil, and this happens to be one of them.  In others universes, you, Mr. Prosecutor, you, your Honor, and you, the Jury, are all murderers, just like me.  We are all guilty, somewhere.  I'm no guiltier than all of your collective parallel selves."

Of course, this argument is rendered moot by the fact that every outcome of the trial will exist in parallel universes; and so this excuse must work in some universes, but not in others.   The criminal would just have to hope that his was a universe which not only made him evil but also made his excuse acceptable.  I suspect there's a smaller infinity of those particular universes. :)

^ Quinxy

(One final note, I was reminded of a more practical moral dilemma nations face, a situation in which people are "excused" for something because they are in a "fated" situation.  The government, for the good of the people, attempts to control the economy by taking actions to control inflation and unemployment: varying lending rates, controlling the money supply, etc.  Contrary to what you might expect, the "optimal" rate of unemployment is not 0% but something in the nature of 5%.  The government will modify policy to target that number, creating more unemployment if the number is too low, and trying to create jobs if the number is too high.  It's my belief that this artificial manipulation of the unemployment rate, this requirement that citizens be unemployed, morally obligates the government to support those who have been "artificially" made unemployed.  Of course identifying those who are "artificially" unemployed and those who are "naturally" unemployed is tricky, and in a sense meaningless.  It is, therefore, better to support all who are unemployed for a period long enough to mean their continued unemployment is squarely the fault of the individual and not the economy.  And that's pretty much what we do, as a nation, with the unemployment benefits we provide, though I would guess few (if any) would explain its necessity as the fulfillment of a moral obligation created by forced unemployment; but I like this argument because far from it suggesting some sort of creeping socialism, it is merely doing what is morally obligated by the government's own actions.)

Copyright protected by Digiprove © 2011-2012 Quinxy von Besiex
11Jul/113

Don’t Invoke the Founding Fathers To Win An Argument

Often politicians from both parties invoke the founding fathers when engaged in modern political debates, and to my ears it always sounds grossly myopic.  Just today the republican Gary Johnson invoked the founding fathers in his refusal to go along with the majority of his party in pledging to oppose gay marriage rights.  Included in his rejection was the phrase, "The freedoms that our forefather­s fought for in this country are sacred and must be preserved.­"  And while that sounds on the surface like a fantastic reference to the founding fathers, it rings entirely hollow.

The founding fathers did not see women as equals, did not see black people as equals (discriminated against the free and kept the slaves in bondage), nor did they see people of various other nations as equals.  I find it impossible to believe, therefore, that men so willing to restrict the rights of others would have been in support of gay marriage; they would certainly not have considered that to be a right they had been fighting for.  I'd even go out on a limb so far as to say it seems far more probable that many of those esteemed men have abandoned the revolution had they been told that their rebellion would ultimately lead to interracial marriage, homosexual marriage, and women having the same rights as men.   So let's not invoke their names to support causes with which they never aligned themselves, nor imagine them to be more high minded than they actually were.  They did a very good thing in founding a nation with pretty words that took on prettier additional meanings over time, they should be given full credit for that, but for nothing more.

^ Quinxy

Copyright protected by Digiprove © 2011-2012 Quinxy von Besiex
25Jun/115

How to Earn Badges Super Fast on the Huffington Post

As part of some ongoing research into social media I devised a strategy for earning badges quickly on the social news site the Huffington Post. Here are the results of my month long investigation.

The badges displayed with your comments are the following:

  • Networker (Level 1 and Level 2)
  • Superuser (Level 1 and Level 2)
  • Moderator (Level 1 and Level 2)
  • Politics Pundit

There are a couple additional badges which can be earned and displayed on your profile, but I won't be discussing those.

Becoming a Networker

You become a Networker by having lots of friends and followers.  As a Networker the comments you make will be given added visibility by being featured with a red background, the higher the level the more colored it will be.  Having more visible comments is good because it means more people see your comments to fan you and favorite them.

Level 1

To achieve Level 1 all you need to do is gain 150 or so friends (the exact value I don't recall, but it's somewhere in this range).

While you can and should try to gain friends and fans by posting comments that people will favorite (which is vital for the Politics Pundit badge) the more expedient approach is to exploit the psychological "norm of reciprocity".     If you fan other comment authors many of them will fan you back, just as a reflex. The Huffington Post encourages this behavior by having prominent "follow back" buttons integrated in your browsing of their site.  So, getting 150 or so friends and your Level 1 is as easy as fanning a lot of people.  Obviously if all you do is fan people your experience of the site will be grim, so please do contribute meaningful, useful, authentic comments!

Level 2

To reach level 2 you MUST have a social media account (e.g., Facebook or Twitter) linked to your Huffington Post account! You'll never get to Level 2 without that.  Once you do link one of these accounts all you need to do is add some more friends and cross over the Level 2 threshold, which I suspect is dependent on a combination of friends/fans.  In my case I was surprised that the requirement wasn't that much higher than for Level 1.  I achieved Level 2 at about 300-400 friends/fans.

Becoming a Super User

A super user is one who posts a lot of comments and shares a lot of links.  Earn these badges and your comments will be featured in purple.

Level 1

Commenting isn't hard to do, but just remember you won't be rewarded for your overly long and overly reasoned comments!  Comments should be meaningful, but make them quick and keep them short!  I got my Level 1 badge with around 200 comments.  A viable strategy to getting your comment count up is to mix genuinely insightful (but still short) comments with comments supportive of other positions/posters.  People routinely compliment other people's comments and say things like, "Fanned and faved" or "F + F".  While slightly odious, the reality is nobody with 100 or 1,000 or 10,000 comments did so by really taking time and care with their every comment.  And if you genuinely think they made a good point, why not?  We do the same in real life social situations, pat a guy on the back and tell him some generic, "Good job!"  This approach will certainly massively boost your post count.

And for anyone that's interested, in my site wanderings the highest number of comments made by a single author that I've seen was 57,000!  And those were all made in about 2.5 years, meaning his daily average was over 60 comments every day!  I saw a few others at 40,000+, but he's the record holder so far as I know.

Level 2

As with the Networker Level 2, you must have a linked social media account to earn this Superuser Level 2.  With that in place all you need to do is make some more comments and promote Huffington Post by using their Facebook, Twitter, etc. sharing tools.  All I had to do was have about 300-400 comments and 75 or so shares to get Level 2.  The easiest way to share is just to use the "Your Timeline" Twitter tool in the right hand column as you are browsing stories.  The text of the tweet is already filled out, all you need to do is click the "Tweet" button; the "Share This Story" widget in the left hand column requires an extra click, pops up a window, and is slower to use.  Using the easy "Your Timeline" tool it's easy to earn this badge upgrade.

Moderator

Moderators help the Huffington Post community police itself by letting users who have good track records identifying abusive/spam-y comments have even more authority in getting rid of the garbage.

Level 1

To earn level 1 you need to have flagged 20 comments that ultimately are deleted.  You also need your flagging decisions to align with the majority on the site, go around flagging comments no one else does and you'll never be a moderator, even if you happened to have 20 comments everyone agreed were bad.  Once you become a Level 1 Moderator every time you flag something it will be counted as though five people had flagged it!

Here are some important secrets to becoming a moderator.  By the time you see a comment it's already passed through an automated filter and likely been seen by dozens or hundreds/thousands of people, some of whom are moderators.  It is therefore somewhat difficult to become a moderator, because what you see has already been moderated, to some significant degree.  Becoming a moderator, therefore, requires a strategy.  Here is one that worked for me:

  • Bad words rarely become or stay visible, so don't expect to flag for bad words.
  • Most content that is abusive/spam/etc. is by new users, either real users or spam bots.  Look for comments made by users with few fans, especially those with less than 10.
  • The easiest thing to spot is comment spam.  These are comments that contain a link (URL), often using a short url service like bit.ly, wp.me, that ultimately has nothing to do with the topic at hand, and is meant to promote some product, infect the user's computer, etc.  The comment that precedes the link is usually related to the topic, so it can be impossible to know just by looking at one comment if what you are seeing is comment spam.  The trick is to click on the user's list of comments in their profile.  If it is comment spam you will typically see that all their comments include a URL, and often the same URL.  The real trick is that since you have discovered they are a comment spammer and you are viewing their list of comments you now have multiple comments you can flag!  Finding one item of comment spam thus often turns into an ability to flag 6-20 comments.
  • Be warned that if you flag a comment which others do not flag it will be viewed as if you made an error, even if your judgment was right!  I was one of the only people realizing some comments were definitively spam and thus the comments were left on the site, so my flagging was not credited to me on those, effectively making me seem wrong.  It took me flagging over 100 items before I was recognized as having properly flagged a mere 20 comments!  So be warned, if you're going to flag comment spam it'll help if you only flag the comment spam you find in popular articles, where others will see it and ultimately flag it, too!
  • To work around the problem mentioned in the previous item, adding a reply to the comment you are flagging warning other people of the comment does two things, 1) it saves other people from possibly getting scammed or getting a virus, 2) it lets other people know they should flag the item, too, which means you are more likely to get credit for that flagging.
  • You can also notify the site about abusive profiles by clicking on the link on that user's profile.  You are then required to tell them why you think the account was abusive.  I have done this numerous times with spammers, but have never received any notification after the fact or seemingly any benefit in terms of credits for comments deleted as a result of my letting them know about the profile.  Thus, help out the site by doing so, but don't expect any reward.
  • Abusive treatment of fellow comment authors is one of the big reasons to flag comments, but it's also one of the hardest to detect and one of the most subjective.  I tend to do it only when it is so blatant that no one could rationally argue it wasn't abusive, otherwise you'll likely take a hit and have your good/bad flag ratio suffer.
  • Shy away from flagging users who have been active on the site more than you have.  People with lots of fans probably know what is likely to be flagged better than you do, so why risk your flagging reputation?  Obviously if they are in a drunken rage abusing someone, sure, but if it's a gray area, stay away!

Getting the moderator badge was one of the hardest because it really was so subjective, and the opportunities to flag obviously bad comments were so rare.

Level 2

If you mastered flagging enough to reach Level 1 just repeat that enough to have caused 100 comments to be deleted and you'll get Level 2 status, and the ability to directly delete abusive comments!

Politics Pundit

Having not earned it and not seen a technical description of it, my best guess is that the Politics Pundit is a badge awarded based on how many times your comments are favorited.  Post plenty of comments that other people really like and eventually you may earn this badge.

Assuming my belief about how you earn this badge is true, a strategy for earning it would include intentionally saying things you believe are more likely to get a positive response out of people.  Obviously I'm not encouraging you to lie or hide your own feelings, merely to also express what you believe in catchy ways, as well as more thoughtful ways.  The comments most likely to be favorited are short, highly opinionated, funny, and/or more commonly have a liberal bias.

Conclusion

Getting to the top of the online social ladder isn't easy, but with a little strategy what can seem impossible becomes achievable.  I wish you all the best!  Feel free to fan me, too. :)

^ Quinxy

Copyright protected by Digiprove © 2011-2012 Quinxy von Besiex
19May/1115

Why Slavery Didn’t Make African Americans Superior Athletes

Back when I was 16 a famous CBS sports commentator, Jimmy the Greek (aka Jimmy Snyder) destroyed his lifelong career with the following comment:

"The black is a better athlete to begin with because he's been bred to be that way — because of his high thighs and big thighs that goes up into his back, and they can jump higher and run faster because of their bigger thighs. This goes back all the way to the Civil War when during the slave trading, the owner — the slave owner would breed his big black to his big woman so that he could have a big black kid."

A furor erupted. He became instantly anathema. Everyone got very angry, screamed that his statement was racist and deeply ignorant. But despite all the television and print coverage of the issue no one seemed to actually discuss what he had said, no one would actually explain to me or anyone else what the factual errors were in his statement. Did slavery (by way of selective pressure in intake, purchase, transportation, or breeding) make African Americans better athletes? The question was so offensive that it didn't apparently deserve an answer. Everyone seemed to already knew why it was racist and deeply ignorant, and if you didn't know, then you were probably racist and deeply ignorant, too. But I suspect I wasn't alone in feeling very confused by this situation, very confused that we couldn't talk about it, couldn't educate ourselves about it. I'd never consciously wondered about African Americans in sport, never wondered why there were so many in sport, why they were doing so well in sport, never wondered about any possible genetic implications of slavery. But suddenly I'm presented with a very interesting riddle (why are African Americans dominating in most American sports: basketball, football, baseball?) and the only solution to the riddle anyone will openly share is Jimmy the Greek's. Nobody else is saying anything, nobody else is saying what specifically is wrong with his solution to that riddle. I tried to talk to people about it at the time, to understand what the "real solution" everyone else seemed to already know was, but the universal response I got from the enlightened around me (friends, teachers) was that everyone seemed very uncomfortable talking about the topic, seeming to feel my even bringing up the topic hinted of racism or ignorance.

So yesterday, after 23 long years I finally found the answer I had been looking for. And surprisingly, after the excitement of having a definite answer, I had to admit I was feeling pretty angry that nobody told me sooner. I don't like being actively denied answers to questions. I don't like being encouraged to remain ignorant and discouraged from trying to get answers. I don't like people hinting that I'm a racist or ignorant when my trying to discuss a topic is an attempt to eradicate whatever ignorance or racism I could have. If everyone wants me to be informed, inform me! And, now that I know what seems very likely the correct answer, I'm also pretty pissed because I suspect the vast majority of the people unkindly refusing to enlighten me had no idea what the answer really was. I think many weren't refusing to tell me the answer because it was a stupid question, they were refusing to tell me because they didn't know the answer, and were simply satisfied repeating what they knew society wanted to be the proxy answer, which was, "Don't ask such a stupid and racist question." Obviously some may have had the real answer, but I'm sure many didn't, or at the very least couldn't explain it.

Fortunately I found a great discussion yesterday where some poor fool asked the question I could easily have asked, and he received profoundly thoughtful answers, though similar to my experience the answers were delivered with an air of irritation and condescension.

Just to try and reiterate my own position, or lack thereof, I've never claimed that slavery contributed to the superiority of African Americans in sport. I have (I think) always admitted that I have no definite answers, but that it seemed plausible to believe that the slave trade could have altered genetics and unless someone told me why that couldn't be, then I'd continue suspecting it might be. But suspecting something might be true is not an actionable position, and shouldn't be viewed so harshly anyway; I suspect capital punishment is wrong, but I wouldn't cast a vote for or against it because I have not yet devoted the time/energy to come to a definite conclusion.

My inherited false line of reasoning went this way:

  • Selection occurs gathering slaves in Africa (selection for strength, perhaps)
  • Selection occurs transporting slaves to market in Africa (selection for strength, survival, perhaps)
  • Selection occurs by traders in markets in Africa (selection for strength, perhaps)
  • Selection occurs in transportation to the New World (selection for survival, strength, perhaps)
  • Selection occurs by slave masters controlling resources and forcing or encouraging sexual matches (selection for strength, docility?, perhaps)

To a person with very modest knowledge of biology/genetics, a coffee table/cultural knowledge of evolution, that surely sounds perfectly reasonable. We see all sorts of variation within species, and under extreme pressure we see many of these variations introduced within a very, very short span of time. I am forever reminded of the program that completely transformed and domesticated Russian silver foxes in less than 40 years. So, all I wanted is for someone to tell me where that chain of reasoning failed.

And here is the answer I finally found...

  • Selection in Africa was largely the result of tribal conflicts and war. Those who became slaves were not selected for strength but were merely the survivors of conflict. Even if the people choosing who became a slave was selecting for apparent strength/health the basis of that strength/health was NOT genetic but was environmental/opportunistic, that person just happened to not be suffering from randomly acting disease/injury/malnutrition.
  • Survival on the way to the slave markets was similarly not genetic but had to do with the slave's health at the beginning of the trip and specific events (disease exposure/nutrition/etc.) during the trip.
  • Traders in markets in Africa may have selected for perceived strength/health, but again the basis for this selection was not primarily genetic, it had more to do with the "luck" of the slave to that point.
  • Transportation to the New World was like the previous transportation, survival was primarily controlled by the environment and initial health conditions of the slave
  • And while some slave masters did engage in eugenics their efforts were ineffectively crude, being incredibly limited in scale and inexactly uncontrolled. Further, even with a more controlled and widespread eugenics program, 250 years would not have been enough time for major genetic differences to emerge.

That is all the answer I wanted. It is perfectly reasonable, makes absolute sense, and therefore I believe it. Why couldn't someone have just told this to me 23 years ago? If the goal on everyone's part is to stamp out racism and ignorance, it really doesn't help when everyone refuses to share the details of their enlightenment.

Why do some topics have to be viewed as so god damn touchy that people refuse to discuss them?

Back in 7th grade we learned about the Coriolis Effect. If you don't remember, the rotation of the earth causes hurricanes in the norther hemisphere to rotate clockwise and in the southern hemisphere counter clockwise. A few years later I hear someone say, "The water goes down the drain clockwise in the northern hemisphere and counter clockwise in the southern hemisphere." I accepted the statement as true. I knew nothing to disbelieve it, and it fit well my understanding of the Coriolis Effect. In senior year in high school I was in a physics lab and at some point had the occasion to relay this drain comment to my lab partner. The student had never observed this and as the teacher was passing asked him if it was true. The teacher helpfully explained that while the Coriolis Effect effects hurricanes it is too weak to influence water going down a drain, that the direction in that situation is controlled by random chance and subtle asymmetries in sink/tub shapes. Why can't we expect all of our ignorances to be similarly corrected with alternative information, without being made to feel stupid for asking the question, without being made to feel stupid for wrongly believing or suspecting something else was true, most particularly when the unchallenged errors fit other facts/theories as best as we know them?

I do appreciate, to the degree anyone can when an issue does not directly effect their identity, that the suggestion of a genetic advantage for African American athletes could be driven by a racist attempt to deny African Americans their achievements, that it could be driven by a racist attempt to suggest slavery was a "positive" for African Americans, that it could be driven by a set of racist assumptions that African American achievements in sports are related to strength and not intelligence, but the person asking the question should not be suspected of having those motivations, consciously or unconsciously, without other evidence to the contrary. In this case, I did not create the question. I only asked for it to be answered because other people claimed they knew what the "right" answer. And even left without their answer, I never treated my "wrong" answer as fact. Why can't we dispassionately discuss these things, so that those who are educable can become educated?

^ Quinxy

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18May/110

The Ridiculous Falsehood of Parity

It surprises me the degree to which so many people seem to insist on an irrational parity between races, genders, suffering, achievements, etc.  Parity is rare.  How likely is it that any two things in the same class are equal?  Most commonly identically classed things have a unique and subtle tendencies across their group which make them, in sum, noticeably different while being in each incarnation able to exceed the other.  But that's not the reality people seem to like, it's not the one most people, particularly those who tow the politically correct line, seem to acknowledge.  And I'm forever surprised by this ridiculous falsehood of parity.

Yesterday all over the news was a blog post made to Psychology Today by one of their unsolicited writers revealing his "study" proving Black Women are Less Attractive than Whites, Asians, and Native Americans.  The blog post included a number of graphs, claimed research over a seven year period, and having supposedly excluded body mass index (BMI) theorized that black women were less attractive because they had more testosterone which made their features less appealing.  If you're a student of the world you won't be surprised to learn that Satoshi Kanazawa's "study" was met with disgust, shock, anger, and his post was quickly removed by Psychology Today.  But what surprised me in the response, what always surprises me in responses to these sorts of situations, was the refusal to refute (or even discuss) the actual subject matter.  The party line seems to be, "All races are equally beautiful.  Any attempt to suggest any one race [particularly a minority] is less attractive is racism."  Now let me be clear, Satoshi Kanazawa's blog post is not a study; it is missing just about everything one would expect to find in a serious, rigorous academic examination of the topic.  Opinions he says he has captured and explanations he has offered for them are, without further evidence and details, wholly unconvincing.  But, most who condemn him don't know this or care about this.  Most people were just deeply offended by the idea.  But, surely the idea must be true, on some level.  The idea being not that black women are less attractive than women of other races, but that people (and therefore the society to which they sum) have attractiveness preferences, which are often (if unconsciously) racially based.  The true reality of societal attractiveness and therefore racial preferences I don't know and wouldn't dare to hazard a guess, but I am sure society has them.  And why on earth would we be surprised?  And why on earth would we deny it.  For many the refusal to consider the topic seems to stem from a belief that the question is fundamentally flawed or otherwise invalid.  You see lots of comments in response, "What is beauty?" "How can one measure attractiveness?" "He's trying to compare apples to oranges."  And those arguments are fine things, but they are ultimately nonsense, because they require us to believe that the world's behavior doesn't depend on the real answer to Kanazawa's real question ("How does attractiveness rank by race/gender?").  If you've lived any amount of years you've surely figured out that people's perception of another's beauty matters quite a lot.  Beautiful people have a social advantage over their homelier but otherwise identically schooled, motivated, gifted friends and coworkers; and this social advantage can be an advantage in business as well, though also sometimes a detriment.  So understanding attractiveness preferences is useful: to understand, compete, and combat the inequities.  And inequities are everywhere, and nothing to focus on lamenting.  Surely no one would be much surprised by studies indicating female preferences against shortness, against balding, against...  Each individual should be and largely is seen as an individual, the sum of his or her particular merits.  Tom Cruise is short but has enjoyed the adoration of millions.  Bruce Willis is bald yet continues to enjoy the adoration of millions. So why then the surprise and fury that preferences might correlate to race tendencies when individual variation is always available.  Again, this man's study appears to be pure bunk, but there is an answer to the question he asked, and it is a useful question, and we shouldn't be afraid to let someone ask it, or to help them find the answer.

And I don't have time to fully go into it, but in the news out of the UK today was fury over their justice minister Kenneth Clark's on radio comments to a rape victim regarding a plan to give reduced prison terms to those who readily admit they committed rape.  I won't get into the meat of the story, but I will mention one curious quote at the end of the article:

When he was quizzed during the show on why rape sentences were on average only five years, Clarke said: "That includes date rape, 17-year-olds having intercourse with 15-year-olds.

"A serious rape, with violence and an unwilling woman, the tariff is much longer than that. I don't think many judges give five years for a forcible rape frankly."

Asked if he thought date rape did not count as a "serious" offence, he said: "Date rape can be as serious as the worst rapes but date rapes, in my very old experience of being in trials, they do vary extraordinarily one from another and in the end the judge has to decide on the circumstances.

It isn't very well highlighted in this passage, but time and time again I've seen discussions where people toeing the politically correct party line seem to insist that all rape is equal, and I think that reflects a similar refusal to accept that reality is far more complicated and messy.  Each case of rape must be examined and the punishment affixed based on the individual crime, but we shouldn't be afraid to speak about overall impact of varying classes and types of crimes.  Far from the exercise being futile, it's necessary and vital for appropriately responding to the problem, particularly in a world where problems are often tackled via governmental budgets.   Targeting resources at reducing the occurrence of sexual crimes, appropriately allocating resources for their prosecution, and for treating its victims requires a complete understanding of its incidence and impact.  Again, we cannot be afraid to ask any question, dive into any subject, and get whatever answers might be there (accepting the answers only after thorough review).

We can improve our reality most efficiently if we acknowledge it.

And one final tangential note...  I really struggle to understand our justice system.  The notion that you lock someone in a jail complex for a fixed period of time as punishment is so curiously ineffectual.  The prisoner is left with his free will in tact, able to wile away his months or years without any serious reflection or self help and then release him as though we assume him to have changed.  And of course he rarely has, most often his mind has retained its felonious nature, and he'll find his way to new victims.  And these new victims exist because we failed to act to protect them.  Why are we releasing anyone who we have very strong reason to suspect retains their criminal mind?  If a rapist is likely to rape again (has done little or nothing to demonstrate a radical change in thought/behavior) what on earth are we doing releasing him in 5 years, or 10 years, of 50 years?  Our society seems to be stuck in this useless middle ground.  We punish but not so much that any real satisfaction is achieved through vengeance, and we provide only very limited resources in prison to rehabilitate because we require free will participation.  And at the end of the day we're all worse for it, with a currently incarcerated population approaching 1% of US residents, and people of felonious minds on the outside no doubt being 10x higher.  I'm not suggesting we move towards a Chinese-style reeducation camp model...  but I can't believe in a world where we bend free will almost to the point of breaking through commercial advertising, and through political and religious indoctrination, that we are in the area of criminals so incredibly impotent.

^ Quinxy

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11May/119

Why provocative female attire/behavior must correlate to a higher incidence of rape and sexual assault…

Let me make it clear, I am in no way suggesting that provocative attire/behavior is a factor in the vast, vast majority of sexual assault.  What I am going to try and argue is that it must logically be a factor in a non-insignificant minority of sexual assault, perhaps assault fitting one or several specific profiles (e.g., late night post bar outing sexual assault by an intoxicated male).  While I have no studies to back up what I'm saying, neither can I find any studies backing up the opposing position (that provocative attire/behavior has zero correlation to any kinds of sexual assault).  What I have found is lots of groups proclaiming this idea is a misogynistic myth, despite offering no evidence.  If those groups claiming it is a myth mean that clothing/behavior is not a factor in most assaults, then obviously they are absolutely right, but that seems a straw man argument; I am unaware of any such claims by even moderately sensible people.  Most rapes are committed by someone the person knows, are premeditated, and are driven by things which have nothing whatsoever to do with any factor the victim could reasonably influence.  Let me also make clear, a victim is a victim.  No victim behavior makes them deserving of assault.  The purpose of my discussing this topic is that I am trying to explore what I think is misdirected energy against warning women that their clothing and behavior may elevate their risk for sexual assault (see the my discussion of SlutWalk marches), and that they may wish to take additional precautions as a result when they exercise their absolute right to wear and be as they wish.  If you have studies to counter anything I'm saying or have alternative logical arguments, please share them.  If I am wrong here I eagerly want to know the errors.  I would love nothing more than to believe I am entirely wrong, that would be a far more interesting reality; discovering you are wrong is terribly exciting, as new worlds of understanding open up before you.

Here are the reasons I believe provocative female attire must correlate to a higher incidence of rape.  I do not agree that the following is desirable or proper, I am merely stating what my observations have been (detailed explanations follow):

  • Male behavior around provocatively dressed females (relative to context) is observed to be markedly different than male behavior towards normally dressed females.
  • Aroused humans behave more dangerously than unaroused humans.
  • Provocative attire puts females in greater contact with males, with those interactions tending to be less bonding and more sexual in nature.
  • Men who look for provocatively dressed women are more dangerous.
  • The self-fulfilling prophecy of the provocative behavior/attire myth.

If some things are different, their sum is unlikely to be the same.  If we can logically establish that provocative female attire and/or behavior significantly alters male behavior, especially related to sexuality and aggression, then it seems unlikely to imagine there is no impact upon the incidence of sexual assaults committed by men.  How much of an impact is probably impossible to logically argue, but with over 230,000 sexual assaults against women in US every year, any impact would be significant.

 

Male Behavior Around Provocatively Dressed Women

Surely everyone has seen men leering at, approaching, commenting about provocatively dressed women in a way they do not with more normally dressed women.  I relate this story elsewhere, but a couple of days ago I'm sitting at a cafe when a stranger next to me, who I’d earlier asked about the wifi password, prods me and says, “Look at that ass.” directing my attention to a provocatively dressed woman passing by. Several hundred women must have passed in the time I’d sat there and he’d said nothing (it’s down the street from a popular bar). Yet he felt comfortable pointing this one woman, and this one feature out to me, a complete stranger, because the woman was dressed that way. I ignored him, because quite frankly I don’t know what the hell I’m supposed to say to something like that; I don’t personally think of women on the street in those terms.  In the few times I've been to bars or clubs (and even out on the streets) I’ve certainly seen guys behaving as though a woman’s provocative dress was an invitation to be more amorous than I suspect they would if she was dressed less provocatively.  I do not agree with this behavior, I do not engage in this behavior, but neither can I deny it exists.  If you have observed behavior like this as well, how can you not agree that such social aggression (which moves into the areas of sexual aggression) is more likely to approach and cross over a line of sexual assault than would more staid interactions?

Aroused Humans Behave Differently

Very closely related to the first point, aroused humans behave differently than unaroused humans.  Aroused humans are notorious for forgoing condoms and the risk of pregnancy, ignoring the risks of disease, detaching from vows they have made to wives/partners, turning away from the disruption that may result in their family unit (and their relationships with their children), disregarding risk to their job, etc.  Many are willing to hurt others (or risk hurting others) for selfish sexual gratification.  The vast majority of humans are not amoral pigs and are able to recognize and respect the consent (or lack thereof) of a partner, but clearly some small and hideous minority do not.  While rape is not usually driven by a desire for sexual gratification, clearly some rape is, and unaroused males must therefore be safer than aroused males.

Provocative Attire Puts One in Greater Contact with Males

Time and time again I've seen women who dress provocatively get more attention from guys; and by that I mean more attention from more guys, and the attention is of a nature which is more superficial, more sexual, and less likely to create an emotional bond which might discourage some types of male sexual aggression.

On a pure numbers basis, a woman normally dressed sitting alone at the bar is going to get fewer guys interacting with her than were she sitting alone and provocatively dressed.  If we assume that some fixed percentage of men are dangerous, more visibility to and interaction with more random men would seem to put one at elevated risk.  Every day we queue up in grocery store and bank lines behind people who must occasionally be muggers, rapists, pedophiles, drug dealers, but the slight nature of our interactions afford us protection.  The nature of the interactions is key.  And I would posit that the nature of the interactions between a provocatively dressed woman and a random man who approached her based on attire is going to be more superficial and less protective than a similar interaction without the provocative attire.  While an emotional bond is only protective in some cases, we hear it routinely cited as the reason why some victims of kidnap, rape, and other crimes ultimately survive, because their assailant came to see them not merely as an object.

It's important to note that my take on this could be backwards.  It could be that while it might diminish some classes of rapes it might elevate others.  Perhaps women would be less likely to be assaulted from these sorts of men and more likely to be by other sorts of men (the types they might meet in more significant contexts and develop more emotional bonds with).  I suspect that's not the case, but I can't deny it might be.

Men Who Look for Provocatively Dressed Women are More Dangerous

The men who are attracted to superficial qualities like provocative dress (to the point that they initiate interaction) seem less likely to be currently in, or have been in, significant, emotionally deep relationships.  As such, they seem less likely to be empathetic towards women, and more likely to objectify them, ultimately seeing them as a disposable means to an end.  I can't shake the feeling that those men pose more of a danger to women statistically than a guy who initiates interaction because of some more significant and instructive quality about her (e.g., the esoteric topic of a book she's reading).   I see this focus on more substantive qualities as being a quality more likely found in a well-governed male, one who has chosen (or been genetically/environmentally predisposed) to cast off some of his baser urges.

There is a possibility that the opposite is true, in as much as sexually aggressive males could be less likely to commit sexual assault because they know how easily they can find another woman to engage in sexual relations with. I doubt it, though, since I think the "self-governance" aspect is the key point.

 

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of the Provocative Behavior/Attire Myth

The horribly sad fact about humans is, many will do what they think they can get away with.  We hear stories of societies all around the world which still (wrongly) believe that provocatively attired/acting women are "fair game" for unwanted sexual advances and assault.  If prosecution occur at all the men claim they were provoked and juries far too often agree, leaving the woman further victimized, stigmatized, and sometimes even punished criminally.  I find it very hard to imagine that this atmosphere would not greatly encourage some men to sexually assault women, with many specifically targeting women who they and the courts see as "fair game".  In South Africa, for example, 25% of men admit to having raped a woman (and half of those to having raped more than one).  Even the president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, was tried for rape.  He was acquitted, after his mounting a defense based on her supposedly provoking him by wearing a particular outfit.  His "innocence" and the apparent acceptance of his excuse (in the minds of those listening to the abstract of the case, if not the details) surely makes many South African males feel ever more that their monstrous treatment of women is justified, is acceptable, and is unlikely to be punished, so long as they only rape the ones who "deserved it".  But the answer to this problem is not to hide from women the fact that many horrible people in South Africa feel safe abusing provocatively dressed/acting women, it is to challenge the ridiculous public and legal notion that such behavior is anything less than evilly felonious, while simultaneously alerting women to the disgusting erroneous views of many of their men.

Imagine your daughter was going to South Africa on a semester abroad from college, wouldn't you want campus police or trip organizers to warn females participating in the program that sexual crimes against their gender is so alarmingly common and that the attitudes of the legal system and the general public likely mean that a shocking number of South African males feel justified in their assault on provocatively dressed/acting women?  Would you not want the women to know this and be encouraged to reduce their likelihood of victimization, mentioning ways they could optionally choose to minimize their risk, including modifying their attire, traveling in groups, reducing alcohol intake, carrying mace, etc.?  That seems like a reasonable, intelligent response, one likely to protect students while letting them exercise their freedom to choose whatever remedy they wished.  But this solution would appear to be one that the supporters of the SlutWalk marches would feel is inappropriate, if I am correctly interpreting their position.  And while the United States and Canada are far more advanced on gender and sexual equality than once they were, I'd argue that social attitudes are not so improved that we can claim women here do not deserve a warning not unlike one might give to a daughter heading off to South Africa; numerous jury-related studies prove the point that in the minds of many North Americans provocative attire/behavior is still a partial justification for sexual assault.

The incident that touched off the SlutWalk protests was offensive, the constable who warned women not to dress like sluts made an overly broad statement that implied, or could have been interpreted as supporting, the absurd notion that women had primary control over whether or not they were victimized.  But rather than attack one constable's specifically terrible wording the SlutWalk protests seem to promote the idea that women have almost zero ability to alter their risk factors, which simply cannot be true.  Some risks are inescapable, other risks could theoretically be reduced but practically speaking shouldn't be if one wants to lead a normal life, but other risks could be reduced without giving up precious freedoms.

Warnings about negative attitudes do not usually aide and abet those negative attitudes.  Warning women about the corrupted minds of a minority of men and how they might avoid those situations does not provide safe harbor to those men, nor does it encourage others to become corrupted.  Our society warns potential victims about the nature of potential criminals all the time without sanctioning or emboldening those criminals; safety seminars teach people about everything from securing your home, to avoiding internet scams, to safely traversing dark mall parking lots.

 

What to do about it?

If what I'm suggesting is in fact true then I'm not suggesting the remedy requires suggesting women be encouraged to cover up or stop behaving as they wish. I am simply arguing that we should not be afraid to tell women about the risks as they are, not as we might wish them to be.  What is being done now smacks of politically correct censorship to me; we can’t openly discuss this possible risk because some people fear it will be misunderstood by the masses as tacit permission to assault women (rather than as a targeted message to reduce specific correlated assaults). I can't think of any other topic where this sort of logic is argued.  Quite to the contrary, society is seen as smart enough to understand the message that we shouldn’t let our young children wander off alone in a mall, without thinking such a warning emboldens pedophiles to abuse our kids.  Why then do some insist an advisory to women emboldens abusive males?

The solution to the problem would not necessitate alterations in provocative dress or provocative behavior.  For example, advice might sound like the following, "Women who dress or act provocatively are suspected to be victimized somewhat more often than average women.  Any additional risk can me eliminated by traveling in pairs and reducing alcohol consumption in those circumstances."  Obviously I'm not sure what the real advice might be, that would require study, but something along those lines which makes it clear to women that they can choose their options for reduced risk.

And finally, let me just re-iterate, nothing I've said alters the absolute necessity that we continue educating society and revising legal systems to ensure that everyone well understands that assault of any form against anyone is wrong.  I just don't see how we are served by a hypocritical refusal to seriously discuss or at least disprove the correlation between provocative attire/behavior and some sexual assaults.

And if my argument is flawed, please let me know how and why!

^Quinxy

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6May/110

My Theory of the Bin Laden Raid: Not all SEALs came by Helicopter

Let me make it clear, I assume that the US government's account of the raid and killing of Osama bin Laden is pretty much true.  I tend strongly not to believe in conspiracies.  That said, there are things about this situation which strike me as very peculiar, and which I would love to have explained, just to appease my curiosity.

Helicopters are very, very loud.  I've had small police helicopters circling hundreds of feet in the air looking for a suspect five blocks away and the noise was incredibly loud and impossible to ignore.  These helicopters at their close range must have been more than ten times that volume.  Surely there must have been some significant amount of time (more than thirty seconds, perhaps more than several minutes) between the time when the house would have been awakened and the time when the first Navy SEALs would have made contact with the people in the house.  It is reported that the SEALs landed outside the compound's walls and breached them to get in, this would have added some extra waking seconds to the lives of the people  inside.  So how is it that only one person in the house had the presence of mind to grab and use a weapon?  They did have weapons.  It was reported that they had three AK-47s and two pistols.  That seems like a curiously small arsenal for this crowd.  Many ordinary citizens in the US have far fewer guns in their modest houses.  And how is it that Osama bin Laden reportedly had an AK-47 in his room and yet did not have it in his hands when the SEALs finally reached him?  Imagine you are Osama Bin Laden.  Your entire life has led up to this moment.  You've been hiding out for ten years, you're so paranoid you built a special house, you communicate with almost no one, you don't have telephone or internet, and you have money and phone numbers sewn into your clothing.  And a small army has finally found and come for you.  You have an AK-47 leaning against the wall in your room, what do you do?  It just seems inconceivable that you do nothing.  My dog wakes me up barking in the middle of the night and I grab my baseball bat from the closet before investigating.  Yet Osama is seen by the SEALs looking over a third floor railing and then retreating back into his room, all unarmed.  The entire time at the compound is reported as 38 minutes, and Osama is reported killed in only the last 5 - 10 minutes.  That means Osama would have been awake and presumably trapped in his upstairs bedroom for 28 - 33 minutes.  That is an incredible amount of time to remain passive and not use an available weapon.  Time elongates in situations like that, those minutes must have passed like hours, affording one plenty of mental time to take some sort of action.

I just have a hard time believing the raid occurred exactly as reported, with the timetable reported, with the people in the compound having so much time to react to what was  happening.  None of that makes sense to me.

It has been reported that the CIA set up a safe house late last summer just to observe and report on the location where the raid took place, gleaning what they could.  Who knows how many people they stationed there, who else they could have smuggled in there.  And who knows how much they learned.  Nine months is an awfully long time to wait and watch, to prepare.

Personally my very strong suspicion is that the raid included a component of SEALs (or other) who did not arrive by helicopter.  If you have a demonstrated ability to place people at the location by conventional means, and they can silently slip up to the building without being detected, why choose instead to first announce your presence with helicopters?  This better fits the facts, for me.  You send a team on the ground to breach the compound and initiate the raid, then you send in additional SEALs to assist and ultimately extract your soldiers.  That would explain (to me) how they caught everyone in the house so unaware, how nobody had time to react as one might expect them to.  And that wouldn't fall under the definition of conspiracy, just good warfighting or spycraft.  And it wouldn't really qualify as a lie to the American people so much as a reasonable state secret.

On another note, I can't escape the feeling that the killing of Bin Laden must have been mildly, tacitly encouraged.  If he were capture alive it would be a nightmare.  Politically, legally, terroristically...  If he were held prisoner Al Qaeda would have surely carried out attack after attack seeking his release.  But dead, those dangers are all rendered moot.  There is an increased risk that he becomes a martyr, but surely that would come in some form either way, killed via court order or in a SEAL raid.  I don't say that the government would say, "Make sure you don't bring him back alive."  But I can imagine them saying, "Take absolutely no unnecessary risks, if he appears to put up even the slightest bit of resistance do what you need to do to protect yourself."  And that's fine, and for the sake of the lives of the SEALs involved I am glad they would be encouraged to protect themselves, but with multiple wars going on and soldier's lives willfully lost left and right in less noble actions, attacking less important targets, it seems almost certain to me there was no insistence that Osama bin Laden be taken alive.  And I'm not arguing that that's good or bad, just observing that it seemed to be.

And one minor observation.  I know almost nothing of SEAL tactics, but given that they were concerned about bombs, weapons, hidden passages, etc. one can imagine they would have focused on clearing the entire structure of people and potential dangers before turning their attention to recovering things like computers, hard drives, thumb drives, etc.  I imagine there would be so moment when it's announced on the radio that everything has been cleared and they would shift their focus to recovering what informational assets they could.  If the official story was exactly true, Osama was only killed in the last 5 - 10 minutes of the raid that would not have allowed them much time to find and grab these informational items.  Given the monumental importance of the data, the resourcefulness Bin Laden has been credited with, I would have thought they would have done more to secure what might have been present.  But, perhaps there was nothing more they could do.

Whatever the case I am perpetually amazed at the relative restraint of soldiers (and police) who are required to do what I do not feel I could, enter a hostile environment where your life is on the line and make instant and permanent determinations of friend and foe (or in this case, lesser and greater foe).  I may feel a bit uncomfortable with our prosecuting many of the wars the way we do, I am very thankful that good men so often do the very best they can.

^ Quinxy

 

Postlogue

I found a link with some interesting information on acoustically stealthy helicopter development, including the commercial Blue Edge blades of the Eurocopter.  So, perhaps you could sneak up on someone with a helicopter...  I'm still confused about how Bin Laden could have remained unarmed until his death, the shortest time I've seen indicated between when the helicopters arrived, when one crashed, when they started breaching the compound walls with explosives, and engaging the people in the compound was 15 minutes, which is still a profoundly long time not to have picked up one of two weapons only feet from you.  Assuming they cut the power to the compound before going in, and assuming he had no lights, perhaps he didn't remember/realize his weapons were near at hand, that's about the only explanation I can think of.

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